Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 88.8%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 24, 6:46 AM UTCJan 3, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES.
- Minor vandalism or protest-related damage would not qualify.
- Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if there is clear intentionality to attack a data center to oppose AI development, even if the attack is stopped before causing significant damage (e.g., if attackers are stopped after breaking in but before destroying equipment).
- Or if like the air strike gets destroyed or misses lol
- Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cyberattacks: Only physical attacks count for resolution.
- Ransomware or similar cyberattacks that don't cause physical damage would not qualify.