Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 19, 25, 11:57 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:47 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
KalshiWill any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress pass legislation explicitly authorizing or funding the White House Ballroom project by Jan 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Trump's ballroom be completed?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES with large-scale credible evidence or Trump/white house staff themselves reveals that the ballroom project is also an underground data center.
- Resolves NO if the ballroom is finished and certainly contains no underground data center.
- The underground portion of construction has to be on white house ground near or directly under the above ground portion of new construction replacing the demolished east wing.
- It must include a data center to resolve yes but also can include other elements.
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/VbJ4ilDvGyc?si=4devuDvE-Z_aaxsS)Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will determine resolution based on how the underground/protected portion is presented or announced in credible details.
- If the language used is mainly "data center" or "data storage/processing facility", the market can resolve YES.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center? resolve?
- Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES with large-scale credible evidence or Trump/white house staff themselves reveals that the ballroom project is also an underground data center.