Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
BitcoinOne-OffCorporate TreasuryMicroStrategyRegulationCrypto3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$347.4
Liquidity
$17.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 3.1%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
13
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Feb 3, 26, 7:56 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio.
- Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count.
- The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.
