Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBy Jan 1st 2030 39%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 25, 2:29 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria:
- This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.
- Motivation and Context:
- Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development.
- So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon.
- Will it ever happen?