Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBy Jan 1st 2030 39%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 25, 2:29 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria:
- This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.
- Motivation and Context:
- Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development.
- So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon.
- Will it ever happen?
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development?
- Manifold Markets prices By Jan 1st 2030 at 39% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development resolve?
- [Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is [Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: