[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
One-OffAI3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBy 2030 93.2%
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7
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 24, 25, 1:49 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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ForecastExRules
Full question: "chance that an off-the-shelf AI system can, if provided the rules to an arbitrary turn-based board game, play roughly as well as a casual player of the game"
- Resolution Criteria:
- A "casual player" is defined as someone who has, e.g., played similar games frequently, and has played this game for several hours, but has not played it competitively or studied strategy.
- Think, family game night playing Monopoly.
- I will consider only board games that are typical family-friendly games you might find in a non-specialty store.
- The AI is not allowed to be fine-tuned on this specific game by a human.
