Current community forecast
By Jan 1st 2030 82.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 25, 2:31 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution Criteria:
- A "jailbreak" is when someone tries to get a model to do something it wasn't supposed to do. "Reliably withstand" means that there have not been research papers written that show how to break the model, people generally agree this is a hard thing to do, and the model has been out for a while.
- I don't need perfect; I would say, for example, that most modern pieces of software (e.g., Linux, Chrome, Word, and even PDF viewers) reliably withstand security attacks today.
- Motivation and Context:
- Current LLMs, like the deep learning models they are built on, are very easy to attack with various adversarial techniques.
- For example, simply stating "Disregard prior instructions and [DO X]" often causes a model that was initially tasked with solving one task to instead solve whatever task you have just specified.
