[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation
One-OffAI3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBy 2030 87.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 25, 1:47 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Full question: "chance that I will be able to purchase an off-the-shelf robot for under USD 100,000 that can perform at least one household task that requires the ability to grasp and manipulate objects (e.g., wash dishes, make a meal, fold laundry)"
- Resolution Criteria:
- You actually have to be able to buy this thing, and it has to work most of the time (roughly as often as a reasonably competent, non-expert human).
- I don't need "high-end restaurant chef"; a "reasonable home cook" is good enough.
- It also doesn't have to be as fast as a human, but it has to be able to achieve the end goal to a reasonable degree of correctness.
- So: it's okay to take five minutes to fold a single shirt, as long as if I start it in the morning and when I get back from work, all my laundry is folded properly.