[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script
EntertainmentOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBy Jan 1st 2030 66.1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 25, 2:23 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution Criteria:
- A "high quality" movie is defined as a movie that a general audience would have a hard time distinguishing from a movie produced by a competent human today.
- I don't need it to be the best movie of the year, or even a top-100.
- But it should be something you could imagine a popular streaming service buying and putting on their platform.
- A "rough script" is, for example, what someone would write as a Wikipedia summary of a movie.
- The model doesn't have to develop the main plot points or character arcs, but it does have to fill in the details and, most importantly, create all of the visuals.
