Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 26, 12:54 AM UTCMar 1, 46, 12:53 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States conducts a military offensive in which combatants are sent to forcefully enter Turkish territory between March 1, 2026 and March 1, 2046 and intentionally kill over 10 Turkish soldiers.
- Resolution requires documented evidence of U.S. military forces engaging in hostile operations on Turkish soil with the intent to occupy territory or effect political/military objectives.
- Routine military exercises, training operations, or peacekeeping missions do not qualify.
- The resolution will be determined by credible news sources, official U.S. government statements, and international reporting.
- This description was generated by AI.
