Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 9:53 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 10:49 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Abdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by which date?
PolymarketAbdul El Sayed Winning margin in 2026 Michigan Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?
Manifold MarketsWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWhat percentage of the Black vote will Abdul El-Sayed get?
Manifold MarketsAbdul El Sayed Margin Of Victory?
Manifold MarketsRules
Abdul El-Sayed said in May he would beat Mike Rogers by 7.
- This question resolves yes if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race by greater than or equal to 7 points.
- It resolves no otherwise.
- I will use the certified results as ground truth, but I will probably resolve this the day after the election based on the New York Times results page if the resolution is obvious.
- I may trade on this market.
