Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastEl Sayed wins by any margin 88.6%+6.6ptLeader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
82
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+11.6 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 30, 26, 11:44 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the official certified general election results published by the Michigan Department of State / Michigan Board of State Canvassers.
- Can resolve early if reporting from Associated Press has a clear resolution.
- Margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the percentage of the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed and the percentage received by Mike Rogers (i.e., El-Sayed % - Rogers %), rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
- multiple threshold options can resolve YES:
- El Sayed wins: Resolves YES if Abdul El-Sayed receives more votes than Mike Rogers.
