Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.1%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 23, 5:33 PM UTCDec 31, 42, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.
- At least 25,000 of these people should be killed by other US residents as opposed to being killed by people from another nation.
- Deaths by drones or other AI-controlled weapons count if and only if they were intentionally caused by US residents.
- Edit 3rd Feb 2023: Something will count as a civil war if all of the following are true:
- there is military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? resolve?
- Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2042.
- How is Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.