Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastXavier Becerra 95.8%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
59
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 29, 23, 5:26 PM UTCNov 9, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Gavin Newsom is term-limited.
- See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election
- Resolves when the race is projected by a major news outlet or Dave Wasserman.
- Re-resolves in the rare event that an initial projection does not match official election results.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be elected governor of California in 2026? · Xavier Becerra 95%
- Also available on Kalshi — California Governor winner? · Xavier Becerra 97%
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- Also available on Polymarket — California Governor Election Winner · Xavier Becerra 94%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California? · Xavier Becerra 94%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election??
- Manifold Markets prices Xavier Becerra at 96% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election? resolve?
- Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election? is scheduled to resolve on November 9, 2026.
- How is Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Gavin Newsom is term-limited.
- Where else is Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Kalshi, Futuur, Polymarket, PredictIt.