Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastXavier Becerra 93.3%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
59
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleSep 29, 23, 5:26 PMNov 9, 26, 7:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Xavier Becerra93%
Compare venues· Xavier Becerra
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California?
6mo
95%
5%
1%
+12 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected governor of California in 2026?
4mo
+2.6pt93.7%
-2.6pt5.4%
0.2%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast65 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Gavin Newsom is term-limited.
- See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election
- Resolves when the race is projected by a major news outlet or Dave Wasserman.
- Re-resolves in the rare event that an initial projection does not match official election results.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$50Jul 83d of dataJul 19
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Gavin Newsom is term-limited.
- See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election
- Resolves when the race is projected by a major news outlet or Dave Wasserman.
- Re-resolves in the rare event that an initial projection does not match official election results.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.