Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 57.2%+0.3ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Sep 2, 25, 10:37 PMNov 5, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Do we really need another market for this topic? Maybe! Multiple choice questions with lots of answers are awkward; this one will aim to have few answers rather than being all-inclusive.
- These seem to be the major other markets for this question:
- @/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
- @/goldenes56/who-will-be-elected-president-in-th-6ecda2cc8128@/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
- @/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a
- If any option (including other) is trading in the top 3, or >20%, in either of those markets for at least 48 hours, I'll add it to this one (please feel encouraged to point out if this is happening!).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election? · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 20%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 24%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 20%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 22%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · J.D. Vance 19%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $193.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-1.0pt58.7%
- Ralph Norman33%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt76%
- October 31+7.5pt60%
- September 30+5.0pt41%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.9%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.1%
- Total Vol
- $24.6M
- 24h Vol
- $546.4K
- Next French Presidential Election
- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Ohio Governor winner?
- Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices)?
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 57% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices) resolve?
- Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices) is scheduled to resolve on November 5, 2028.
- How is Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Do we really need another market for this topic? Maybe! Multiple choice questions with lots of answers are awkward; this one will aim to have few answers rather than being all-inclusive.
- Where else is Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices) listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur, PredictIt, Kalshi.