Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastJ.D. Vance 19.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleSep 2, 25, 10:37 PMNov 5, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
J.D. Vance19%
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
22%
17%
16%
+10 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
2y
3.6%
1.3%
1.8%
+58 more outcomes
Community forecast479 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$260.1K
24h Vol$251.2
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected president in 2028?
2y
+0.2%3.6%
0.6%
-0.1%1.6%
+97 more outcomes
Community forecast1,973 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
2y
3.1%
-0.4%19.2%
0.8%
+18 more outcomes
Community forecast577 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$553.5K
24h Vol$1.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election?
2y
15.3%
2.7%
0.1%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast108 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$31.8K
24h Vol$103
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
2y
1.7%
0.6%
1.1%
+27 more outcomes
Community forecast42 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$19.6K
24h Vol$114.1
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
2y
13.8%
3.8%
1.6%
+44 more outcomes
Community forecast146 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$73.2K
24h Vol$102
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Do we really need another market for this topic? Maybe! Multiple choice questions with lots of answers are awkward; this one will aim to have few answers rather than being all-inclusive.
- These seem to be the major other markets for this question:
- @/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
- @/goldenes56/who-will-be-elected-president-in-th-6ecda2cc8128@/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
- @/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a
- If any option (including other) is trading in the top 3, or >20%, in either of those markets for at least 48 hours, I'll add it to this one (please feel encouraged to point out if this is happening!).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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Do we really need another market for this topic? Maybe! Multiple choice questions with lots of answers are awkward; this one will aim to have few answers rather than being all-inclusive.
- These seem to be the major other markets for this question:
- @/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
- @/goldenes56/who-will-be-elected-president-in-th-6ecda2cc8128@/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
- @/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a
- If any option (including other) is trading in the top 3, or >20%, in either of those markets for at least 48 hours, I'll add it to this one (please feel encouraged to point out if this is happening!).