Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 60.7%+0.8ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.6 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 25, 10:37 PM UTCNov 5, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? [limited responses for less lag]
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected president in the 2028 US election?
Manifold MarketsWill Ron DeSantis be elected President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurRules
Do we really need another market for this topic? Maybe! Multiple choice questions with lots of answers are awkward; this one will aim to have few answers rather than being all-inclusive.
- These seem to be the major other markets for this question:
- @/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20
- @/goldenes56/who-will-be-elected-president-in-th-6ecda2cc8128@/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
- @/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a
- If any option (including other) is trading in the top 3, or >20%, in either of those markets for at least 48 hours, I'll add it to this one (please feel encouraged to point out if this is happening!).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 81%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 27%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
