Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3?
GeopoliticsManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThird World War 51%
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 24, 1:44 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?
- Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, according to things like news outlets, Wikipedia, other bets, etc. For example, if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un resolves to Yes first, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for Civil War 2:
- "Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3??
- Manifold Markets prices Third World War at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? resolve?
- Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2101.
- How is Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?