Which party will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 66.8%-0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+17.3 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 26, 12:20 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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KalshiMongolian Democratic Party presidential nomination winner?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the party of the person elected President in the November 7, 2028 election, however the winner is officially decided.
- Only the party matters: a ticket on the Democratic or Republican line counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Any other ticket resolves to Other, or to its own answer if one has been added.
- N/A if no presidential election is held for the term starting January 20, 2029.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will a Democrat win the US Presidential Election in 2028? · Yes 58%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 68%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election? · Yes 68%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party · Democrat 68%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?