What will happen in Russia around elections of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffElectionPoliticsRussia / Ukraine
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedUnverified resolution data: United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yabloko candidates are votable in day of elections97.1%
Major disruptions because of massive anti Putin/United Russia/war voting.0%
New: major part of people in Russia believe elections were falsified such that result changes (winner changes or at least UR doesn't get majority)0%
United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)100%
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
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Manifold MarketsRules
Moods in the society suprise me again and again.
- Yabloko was initially allowed into elections, got massive support from young people, and even now there still are individual candidates from Yabloko even though the party list was rejected.
- Blocks of everything in internet, blocks for VPN connections on major Russian platforms, whitelists, full shutdowns.
- Ukrainian strikes on oil and marketplaces, gas shortages.
- Speeches of before apolitical or pro Putin people.
- All that is more than I expected.
