Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Global Pandemic 62.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 24, 8:24 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRules
Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown.
- Could it be that our economic systems will crumble under their own weight?
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.5pt74%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.0pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $660.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Global Pandemic at 62% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? resolve?
- What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown.