Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?
One-OffSociety & CultureScience3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo global catastrophe 87.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 23, 12:49 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause.
- Otherwise, resolves to "the named outcome".
- See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
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