If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
GeopoliticsAIWeatherManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast1687 K (melting point of silicon) 26.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
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26
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 24, 2:34 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.
- Survival in this case means the resulting computer can resume running afterwards without outside intervention, at a level that still qualifies as an ASI, even if performance is degraded relative to before.
- The hardware can include any armour/insulation layers needed, not just the computronium itself.
- Other potentially relevant temperatures for context:
- 0 C = 273 K (melting point of water ice)
- 100 C = 373 K (boiling point of water)
