If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
GeopoliticsOne-OffAIScienceManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.9%
Forecasters
62
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 27, 24, 5:31 AM UTCJan 1, 55, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it begin mining the moon within a year?
Manifold MarketsWill a post AGI future (If AGI is created and doesn’t wipe out humanity) be really nice and compassionate to criminals ?
Manifold MarketsWill the human civilization collapse before we become multi planetary species?
Manifold MarketsCovid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths
Manifold MarketsRules
Definitions for this question:
- "ASI" = an emergent artificial intelligence with power or capabilities beyond human understanding
- "doesn't wipe out humanity" = humans still exist, and they still have biological bodies (modifications okay) and individual consciousnesses
- "natural death" = sickness, old age, genetic disorders, etc. (Doesn't include: accidents, war, foul play, divine reckoning of any variety, etc.)
- "be cured" = at minimum, all consenting humans are protected from natural death (by oversight, treatments, augmentation, or whatnot), and at least 50% of humanity's living population has been offered said protection
- "within 5 years" = 5 years from ASI, as best as can be determined
