Current community forecast
No 69%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 8, 24, 11:11 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria clarifications:
- If the moon is being mined already and it takes over those operations, I'd count that, though I suspect that scenario is relatively low probability given how rapidly accelerating AI development is right now compared to super stagnant space exploration.
- I'm defining ASI as an AI system that can outperform 100% of the human population at any cognitive task.
- Since software can be easily copied and ran in parallel or have its clock speed ramped up, it's also not hard to see how the ASI could also outperform the cumulative efforts of all of humanity combined.
- For lunar mining, I'm defining it as industrial extraction of materials from the moon for the purpose of manufacturing.
- This includes using for fuel (e.g. helium-3 for fusion reactors, hydrogen for rockets) or for supporting life (e.g. water ice).
