Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
WeatherOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 62%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 23, 1:06 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).
- It is very likely the dust storm would need to meet the following requirements for me to resolve this as Yes:
- Contains a large amount of (presumably poisonous, likely arsenic laden) material from the Great Salt Lake lake bed
- Is expected to cause specifically attributable negative health affects (over the victims lifetime) to greater than 500 people and/or required more than $10,000,000 to mitigate the negative effects of (possibly through economic losses of Shelter In Place or Evacuation orders)
- Recieved reporting by a major news outlet (respected news outlets in the SLC region count).
- Please feel free to ask questions about how I would resolve this in various cases in the comments.
Open markets
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- 91° to 92°-12.0pt1%
- 89° to 90°-4.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 97 F on September 9, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $117.4K
- 24h Vol
- $117.4K
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KALSHIHighest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- 92° or above+33.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-14.0pt1%
- 90° to 91°-18.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 30°C+91.3pt99%
- 31°C-0.1pt1%
- 25°C or below-0.8pt0%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? resolve?
- Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).