Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 23, 9:29 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Great Salt Lake be below 4,188ft at the beginning of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
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KalshiWill Salt Lake City receive a Pro Baseball expansion team before Aug 1, 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolves NO at the end of 2029 if the lake has not yet dried up.
- For context see https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/us/great-salt-lake-disappearing-drought-climate/index.html
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above+15.0pt95.2%
- 91° to 92°-12.0pt1%
- 89° to 90°-4.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $199.2K
- 24h Vol
- $137.7K
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 97 F on September 9, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $117.4K
- 24h Vol
- $117.4K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
- 20°C+71.0pt97%
- 21°C-4.5pt2%
- 19°C-42.3pt1%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- 22°C+82.5pt86.3%
- 23°C-16.0pt11.8%
- 24°C-40.5pt2%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- 92° or above+33.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-14.0pt1%
- 90° to 91°-18.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 30°C+91.3pt99%
- 31°C-0.1pt1%
- 25°C or below-0.8pt0%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
- Where will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 95 F on September 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Las Vegas on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030? resolve?
- Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves NO at the end of 2029 if the lake has not yet dried up.