Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTrial doesn't start until 2026 100%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 24, 6:31 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution Criteria
- The trial will be considered to have started in a jury trial when the jury is sworn.
- See Crist v.
- Bretz, 437 U.S. 28 (1978).
- In a bench trial, the trial will be considered to have started once the first witness is sworn.
- See Serfass v.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Luigi Mangione NY Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers]?
- Manifold Markets prices Trial doesn't start until 2026 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Luigi Mangione NY Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers] resolve?
- Luigi Mangione NY Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers] is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Luigi Mangione NY Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria