PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86%+2.4pt
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$219.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 24.2%
Spread
20.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
1
7d Change
+11.2 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 17, 25, 9:20 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketWill Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced?
Manifold MarketsWill Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
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- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? resolve?
- Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.