Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.2%
Forecasters
200
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 18, 25, 2:16 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of
- Except, one year later.
- This market will resolve YES if:
- Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027.
- Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027.
- The market will resolve NO if:
