Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
199
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 25, 2:16 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which counts will Luigi Mangione be convicted on?
Manifold MarketsWill Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketLuigi Mangione tried before 2027?
PolymarketWill Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced?
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketRules
Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of
- Except, one year later.
- This market will resolve YES if:
- Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027.
- Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027.
- The market will resolve NO if:
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
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- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027? resolve?
- Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of