Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business) 76%Leader of 11 outcomes
(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business) 76%Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 24, 11:49 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketLuigi Mangione tried before 2027?
PolymarketWill Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced?
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione NY Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsRules
Each answer will resolve independently based on the verdict in Mangione's criminal trial:
- YES if Mangione is found guilty of that specific count, or pleas guilty to that count
- NO if Mangione is found not guilty of that specific count, or if the count is dismissed/dropped before or during trial, or if Mangione dies before a verdict is delivered for that count.
- You can read the indictment for these charges here:
- https://manhattanda.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Mangione-Indictment-FINAL-as-filed.pdf
- If Mangione is charged with additional New York crimes related to the assassination before the full resolution of this market, I will add them.
