Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case 100%Leader of 31 outcomes
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case 100%Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 24, 4:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Each proposition will resolve independently based on publicly verifiable information from reputable news sources or official court documents before the start of the trial.
- Specific resolution criteria:
- Venue change: a request for a change of venue must be filed under NY CLS CPL § 230.20
- Venue change granted: court grants motion under NY CLS CPL § 230.20
- Reference arrests: Must be documented arrests where the suspect/criminal explicitly cites Mangione or this case as inspiration/motivation
- Plea deal: formal agreement to plead guilty or no contest
