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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Crime & Justice
  3. Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

One-OffCrime & Justice6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 5%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$2.1

Liquidity

$15.1K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

4.0% / 5.0%

Spread

25.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jan 29, 26, 9:07 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes5%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
  • If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
  • If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
  • Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
  • If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
  • If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
  • Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".