PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%+1.4pt
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$7.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 3.1%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
7
7d Change
-1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 29, 26, 9:06 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of August 22, 2026.
- When does Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? resolve?
- Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
