Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionChinaCrime & JusticeUS Politics9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.1%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 5, 26, 3:01 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between July 5, 2026, and June 30, 2027, Elaine Chao is formally indicted, criminally charged, or officially announced as the subject of a new investigation by a United States federal agency (such as the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or the Federal Election Commission) or a congressional committee.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Any official investigation, indictment, or charges must be verified by a reliable, mainstream news source (e.g., AP News, Reuters, or The New York Times) or a direct publication from a U.S. government agency.
- On June 14, 2026, Senator Mitch McConnell was hospitalized after emergency responders performed CPR following a cardiac arrest at his home.
- Just three days later, on June 17, 2026, his wife, former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng to discuss U.S.-China bilateral cooperation.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good? resolve?
- Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Is Mitch McConnell wife (Elaine Chao) up to no good? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria