Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60.2%
Forecasters
118
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 24, 12:32 AM UTCJan 1, 33, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mitch McConnell die in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
PolymarketWhen will Mitch McConnell retire?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell cast a Senate vote by Sept. 30?
PredictItRules
We’ve got two 81 year old career politicians, born in 1942, from opposing sides of the aisle.
- Will Cocaine Mitch croak before Scranton Joe? Can Grandpa Biden outlast Ol’ Man McConnell?
- This market will extend as needed.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.4pt97%
- $50M+10.6pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
- $795K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $657.9K
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Total Vol
- $748.1K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.8%
- Republican Party-2.0pt15.2%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $247.6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mitch McConnell die before Joe Biden??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Mitch McConnell die before Joe Biden? resolve?
- Will Mitch McConnell die before Joe Biden? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is Will Mitch McConnell die before Joe Biden? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: We’ve got two 81 year old career politicians, born in 1942, from opposing sides of the aisle.