Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 2:36 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are deployed to polling locations, early voting sites, or ballot drop boxes during the 2026 midterm elections in November.
- Deployment includes uniformed or armed ICE personnel stationed at, patrolling, or conducting operations within the immediate vicinity of voting locations with the apparent intent to monitor voters or conduct immigration enforcement.
- This market resolves NO if the 2026 midterm elections occur without ICE deployment to polling locations as defined above.
- Resolution will be determined by reporting from major news outlets and official statements from state election officials and the Department of Homeland Security.
- The Trump administration's deployment of ICE agents to airports has renewed discussion about the possibility of ICE going to the polls in November, with Steve Bannon urging President Trump to treat the airport deployment as a dress rehearsal for the 2026 midterms.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms? resolve?
- Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria