Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2026 US Midterms4d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingMar 31, 26, 2:36 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are deployed to polling locations, early voting sites, or ballot drop boxes during the 2026 midterm elections in November.
- Deployment includes uniformed or armed ICE personnel stationed at, patrolling, or conducting operations within the immediate vicinity of voting locations with the apparent intent to monitor voters or conduct immigration enforcement.
- This market resolves NO if the 2026 midterm elections occur without ICE deployment to polling locations as defined above.
- Resolution will be determined by reporting from major news outlets and official statements from state election officials and the Department of Homeland Security.
- The Trump administration's deployment of ICE agents to airports has renewed discussion about the possibility of ICE going to the polls in November, with Steve Bannon urging President Trump to treat the airport deployment as a dress rehearsal for the 2026 midterms.
