Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAfter March 31 2026. 100%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingMar 11, 26, 10:28 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsIs Mojtaba Khamenei already dead?
Manifold MarketsTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Mojtaba Khamenei was born on September 8, 1969, making him currently 56 years old.
- This market resolves based on the date of his death, if it occurs.
- Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources reporting his death, including major news agencies (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) or official Iranian government announcements.
- The market will resolve to whichever answer bracket corresponds to the date his death is confirmed.
- Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, 2026, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026.
Open markets
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+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
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- September 30+0.4pt2%
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+7 more outcomes
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- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
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- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
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- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die??
- Manifold Markets prices After March 31 2026. at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die? resolve?
- In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is In how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria