If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2026 US MidtermsElection12d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 60.9%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 25, 11:15 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 12:14 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 3, 2026, the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional district maps AND gains seats in Congress.
- The market will resolve “No” if the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional maps, but loses seats or maintains the same number.
- The market will resolve to "NA" if no such redistricting occurs by that date.
- In July 2025, President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional maps to create five additional GOP-favored districts, aiming to bolster the party's majority in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
- Governor Greg Abbott responded by adding redistricting to a special legislative session agenda.
