If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 55%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 24, 12:52 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 12:57 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.