Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64.7%
Forecasters
297
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 12, 22, 2:34 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
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Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West.
- Will the same thing happen to Taiwan?
- Resolves YES if Taiwan becomes unambiguously a part of China due to forceful takeover by China.
- Resolves NO if Chinia attempts to invade Taiwan and is rebuffed.
- Resolves N/A if China or Taiwan stop existing in their current forms.
- (Other than Taiwan being incorperated into China by force.
