Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 66.7%
Forecasters
297
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 12, 22, 2:34 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
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Manifold MarketsIran invades Kuwait by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketRules
Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West.
- Will the same thing happen to Taiwan?
- Resolves YES if Taiwan becomes unambiguously a part of China due to forceful takeover by China.
- Resolves NO if Chinia attempts to invade Taiwan and is rebuffed.
- Resolves N/A if China or Taiwan stop existing in their current forms.
- (Other than Taiwan being incorperated into China by force.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $549.5K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.8pt6%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.1pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? resolve?
- If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West.