Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
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KalshiRules
This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.
- This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends.
- If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES.
- Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A. (Identical market to: source market)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly? resolve?
- If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.