Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsChina1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 31, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 74.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 25, 1:23 AM UTCJan 21, 28, 2:23 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if China launches a military invasion of Taiwan within 1 year (365 days) following an invasion of Greenland by the USA.
- The market resolves to NO if China does not invade Taiwan within this timeframe after a Greenland invasion, including the case where a Taiwan invasion precedes a Greenland invasion.
- The market resolves N/A if no invasion of Greenland occurs by the end of Trump's current term.
- China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has maintained a long-standing goal of reunification.
- The Chinese government has not ruled out the use of force to achieve this goal, though military analysts debate the likelihood and timing of any potential invasion.
