Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Mar 15, 26, 2:20 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- As of 2026, no fully humanoid robot has been deployed in direct combat operations.
- This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot (defined as a bipedal, human-shaped autonomous or semi-autonomous machine) directly kills a human combatant or civilian in Ukraine during 2026.
- Resolution requires credible documentation from established news sources confirming the death was caused by a humanoid robot's actions.
- The robot must be deployed in Ukraine and actively engaged in combat or combat-adjacent operations.
- Accidental deaths caused by mechanical failure or mishandling do not count.
