Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast2nd, tied 41.9%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-19.6 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 25, 12:50 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This question is referring to Wikipedia's list of presidents of the United States by time in office and what Donald Trump's highest position on that list will be before his death.
- Donald Trump spent 1,461 days in office during his first term.
- He regained the presidency at 12 noon, 20 January 2025.
- This market should only use Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00), regardless of daylight savings time.
- For purposes of this market, round to the nearest integer day when counting time spent in office.
- For instance, if a president takes office at 12 noon on 20 January of one year (with no leap day) and then leaves office at 1 am on 20 January of the next year, they will have held the office for 364 days and 13 hours (364.54 days).