When, where or how will Trump die?
PoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineUS PoliticsElectionAIGeopolitics18y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
On Earth 99%Leader of 88 outcomes
On Earth 99%Forecasters
346
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 25, 3:15 PM UTCJan 1, 45, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will Trump and Putin next meet?
KalshiWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsRules
Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old.
- He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history.
- According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources.
- If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.
- The market will resolve N/A if: