When, where or how will Trump die?
PoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineUS PoliticsElectionAIGeopolitics18y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
On Earth 99%Leader of 87 outcomes
Forecasters
343
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 25, 3:15 PM UTCJan 1, 45, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old.
- He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history.
- According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources.
- If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.
- The market will resolve N/A if: