GOP wins in how many of the six "Rabois" Senate races?
30.7 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection16h
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastAt least one 80.7%+30.7ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+30.7 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 26, 2:47 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Keith Rabois offers to bet Nate Silver that the GOP wins the named outcome of six Senate races: Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio (special), Michigan.
- This market counts how many of those six the Republican candidate actually wins.
- [tweet]Each answer resolves independently: "At least N" resolves YES if the GOP wins N or more of the six, NO otherwise.
- Winners per the AP call / certified result.
- A race that goes to a runoff or recount resolves on its final outcome; the market stays open to resolution until all six are decided.
- Pic for posterity:
