PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Texas 83%+3.5ptLeader of 18 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$191K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 6:41 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Senate races will be within 1%?
PolymarketWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
PolymarketWhat % of the vote will the Democrat get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win any of Alaska, Iowa, or Ohio in the Senate races this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?
KalshiRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.