Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98.1%
Forecasters
64
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 25, 7:05 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 8:04 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2028, Elon Musk is elected to any public office in the United States as a member of the America Party.
- Verification will be based on official election results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or relevant state election authorities.
- On July 5, 2025, Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party, citing dissatisfaction with existing political structures and fiscal policies.
- The party aims to challenge the traditional two-party system and promote fiscal conservatism.
- Musk has indicated plans to focus on key congressional seats in upcoming elections.
