Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 73.1%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 23, 6:32 AM UTCJan 1, 33, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)
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Manifold MarketsWill an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
PolymarketWho will run for public office in 2026?
KalshiRules
If it is revealed that an artificial intelligence was elected to public office, this market solves to YES.
- I will rely on evidence from the major news outlets.
- If an AI elected but the public doesn't know, the market nonetheless solves to YES (e.g: the face is just someone that speakes whatever the AI tells him to say)
- I won't bet on this market and I will hold a low bar for what it would mean, but nonetheless relying in the mainstream media.