Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 77.2%
No 77.2%Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 23, 2:28 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves, no later than end of 2028, with criterion identical to the first market below, with the exception that, if the second market resolves to something other than No, this market will resolve to N/A immediately.
- In the case that the invasion occurs before end of 2023, this resolves N/A. (https://manifold.markets/embed/mrb/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-the)(https://manifold.markets/embed/footgun/will-china-supply-arms-to-russia-in)