Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Nov 27, 23, 6:45 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that.
- I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Republican party.
- The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
- Sister question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/galaga/conditional-on-the-next-us-presiden-950953ec17c9)Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
- https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh