What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS??

Manifold Markets prices Trump wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan at 74.4% as of October 28, 2026.

Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Trump wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan 74.4%

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Stale

Jul 30, 24, 3:32 AM UTCDec 30, 28, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.