Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96.2%
No 96.2%Forecasters
26
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 7 minutes ago
Feb 7, 25, 3:15 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
By December 31, 2026, will a piece of federal legislation be enacted (i.e. passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise become effective) that eliminates or substantially restricts the preferential tax treatment of carried interest for private equity and hedge fund managers?
- Background & Rationale:
- The carried interest tax treatment lets fund managers pay tax at the lower long‐term capital gains rate (roughly 20%) on performance-based income, rather than the higher ordinary income rate (up to about 37%).
- President Trump has repeatedly stated that ending this “loophole” is a priority.
- However, previous attempts—even when championed by Trump—have stalled due to intra-party divisions, strong lobbying by influential financial industry groups, and the challenge of fitting such a change into a broader tax reform package.
- Resolution Criteria: